The ‘Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns’ has a message for us from 2030

The stock market’s 10-year return potential is better now than it was at the end of 2019, for reasons having nothing to do with the shape of the economic recovery or the speed with which a COVID-19 vaccine is developed.

Notice that the household equity allocation is the flip side of the coin from household cash — sometimes referred to as sideline cash. Higher cash levels are therefore bullish and, sure enough, household cash allocations have risen markedly as equity allocations have fallen. But backtesting has shown that household equity allocation is the better predictor.

Note that household equity allocation is not a short-term market timing tool. That’s just as well, since the data are updated only quarterly by the Federal Reserve, and with a significant time lag. First-quarter 2020 data, for example, were just recently released. But they show that the allocation at the end of March stood at 49.0%, a drop of 7.3 percentage points from three months previously. That is the biggest quarterly drop since data began being collected in 1951.

Stocks look better than Treasurys — but that’s not saying much To forecast the stock market’s nominal, rather than inflation-adjusted, return, we need to predict what inflation will be. According to a model constructed by the Cleveland Federal Reserve, expected inflation over the next decade is 1.2% annualized. Add in the projected real return of 0.5% annualized from the household equity model, and you arrive at a total return estimate for stocks of 1.7% annualized over the next decade.

lol, I guess your jobs depend on this manufactured narrative

Nah, it's all Fed's extraordinary steps.

Absolute utter fucking charlatan permabullshit

Crazy wishful thinking, Feels like a drug pusher.

South Africa South Africa Latest News, South Africa South Africa Headlines

Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.

Stock market live updates: Futures higher, winning week, reopen trades risingA conversation on the latest market-moving news. Good I will sell my EWZ to someone with a profit За такие твитты я люблю твиттер States reopening boost stocks, yet somehow the unemployment numbers aren't reflecting this great reopening.
Source: CNBC - 🏆 12. / 72 Read more »

Stocks wobble as investors assess risks of second waveAsian shares and U.S. stock futures teetered in choppy trade on Friday as lingering concerns about an fresh spike in coronavirus cases offset growing hopes for a quick economic recovery. First wave never ended tho Defund Wall Street. Hey, learn from Elite Entrepreneurs who make it in their field, despite obstacles & everything else. Join us and share your story My show is now pushing 8 million downloads :pray:
Source: Reuters - 🏆 2. / 97 Read more »

Stocks stutter as second wave virus fears test recovery hopesAsian shares and U.S. stock futures wobbled in choppy trade on Friday as lingering concerns about an fresh spike in coronavirus cases offset growing hopes for a quick economic recovery. You can't have a second wave if you never let the first one die!
Source: Reuters - 🏆 2. / 97 Read more »

5 things to know before the stock market opens FridayStock futures rallied on a report that China plans to accelerate its purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Sounds like Bolton wasn't lying about at least one thing. 🤔 YourMoneyALLy something else to consider is Royal Caribbean's bombshell from last night:
Source: CNBC - 🏆 12. / 72 Read more »