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Tony Pasquariello of Goldman Sachs Global Markets and Joe Wall of the Office of Government Affairs at Goldman detailed the results of this survey on the latest episode of t"The headline of the survey was "it ain't about the White House, it's about the Senate," Wall said.Investors surveyed by Goldman Sachs said that they're more concerned about the market impact of the Senate outcome than the presidential election results.
With a Trump win and split Congress, meaning a Democratic-led House and Republican Senate, market participants think there's a 40% chance markets will be either "somewhat stronger" or "much stronger." The next outcome given was a Biden win and a "small blue wave," as Wall called it, where Democrats would narrowly win control of the Senate with around 50 or 51 seats. Fifty-eight percent of market participants think that will lead to a weaker market and 23% say "much weaker."
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