Why stock-market bulls can’t ignore rising COVID cases despite vaccine optimism

Progress toward a vaccine for COVID-19 is undeniably good news, but U.S. stocks could falter if politicians can’t come up with a post-election deal on another round of aid spending to shore up a bruised economy, some investors fear.

The focus in markets early this week turned to vaccine prospects after Pfizer Inc. PFE, -2.46% and Germany-based BioNTech SE BNTX, -7.14% early Monday announced their COVID-19 candidate was more than 90% effective in preventing infections. Analysts said some of the vaccine-inspired optimism seen earlier in the week was being overshadowed by the continued spread of the virus.

Investors, in the run-up to the election, were paying close attention to fiscal stimulus prospects as fraught negotiations between the Trump administration and House Democrats remained stalled. And even had their been a breakthrough, Senate Republicans were signaling resistance to the multi-trillion dollar packages being considered by the White House and Democratic lawmakers.

“Although there is still some near-term risk of increased government-imposed lockdowns due to the weather and the lag between development and broad distribution of a vaccine, the promise of a highly effective vaccine significantly reduces the need for a large phase four stimulus bill,” said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities U.S.A., in a note.

“We continue to believe that another package is needed to bridge the gap as we move through the tough winter months,” said Megan Horneman, director of portfolio strategy at Verdence Capital Advisors, in a note.

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