Casino stocks in 2023: It could come down to this region, analysts say

As casinos try to map out the year ahead amid concerns about inflation’s impact on leisure spending, Macau’s reopening could be the biggest driver of Wall Street’s optimism on the sector’s overall results, analysts said on Wednesday.

“We believe Macau offers the best chance for positive estimate revisions in 2023,” BofA analysts said in a research note, adding that financial forecasts for casinos that do business in the global gaming hub might be too low. The analysts said that a full recovery in Macau implied roughly 35% to 45% upside to their financial forecasts for casino operators Las Vegas Sands Corp. LVS and Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN , which run resorts in the region. Their 2024 estimates assumed a full mass-market recovery there.

And where estimates for Macau casinos might be too low, they said, forecasts in the U.S. might be too high, as higher prices threaten consumers’ appetite for hitting the slots or betting on sports.

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