Even though the stock market has rallied so far in 2023, there has been a weak trend during the year’s first earnings season: negative revisions to earnings estimates.
Below is a list of 20 companies in the S&P 500 SPX that have bucked this trend, having the most significant positive revisions to their consensus calendar 2023 earnings-per-share estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. After that is a list of the 20 companies in the benchmark index that have seen the worst revisions to their consensus 2023 EPS estimates.
But so far this year, most of the stocks on the second list — the one with the worst EPS estimate revisions — have risen. For some of the stocks, this action may reflect investors’ enthusiasm for companies’ cost-cutting efforts, which are expected to lower profits temporarily. When workers are laid off, severance and other expenses result in elevated expenses before cost reductions are realized.
So changes in estimates alone cannot tell the whole story. But they can raise flags for investors to take a closer look at the negative or positive developments they signal. All estimates in this article are for calendar years. Because about 20% of companies in the S&P 500 have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar, and many have fiscal-quarter ends that don’t even line up with calendar-month ends, FactSet uses actual data for fiscal quarters to calculate its own calendar-year estimates, incorporating forward estimates for the current year.
A year ago, there were 258 positive 2022 EPS estimate revisions for S&P 500 companies between the end of 2021 and Feb. 14, 2022.
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