Crash in Online Hiring May Signal a Cooling Jobs Market

All of the official statistics tracking labor market—from jobless claims, to payrolls, to openings—indicate that demand for labor remains sky-high and supply is still constrained. This has led investors to rethink the idea that the Federal Reserve is poised to implement just two more quarter-point hikes before pausing, with market indicators suggesting the Fed now has at least three-quarters of a point to go before pausing.

Yet there are some emerging signs that the labor market may be cooling off. ZipRecruiter, the online hiring platform, announced its fourth quarter results on Wednesday. Although revenue beat expectations, it was down four percent compared with the fourth quarter of the prior year. Management pinned the blame on a hard comparison to the hiring boom of the fourth quarter of last year and “a continued softening in the hiring market.

Perhaps even more important, ZipRecruiter’s management said it expects sales in the first quarter to be down between 23 percent and 20 percent from last year’s level and for full year sales to decline between 13 percent and 15 percent.In June of 2022, we saw in the beginning of what would prove to be a persistent decline in the number of jobs posted. We now start 2023 with an increasingly difficult macroeconomic backdrop.

It’s not just ZipRecruiter who is seeing these signs of a slowdown. Two weeks ago, Rand Ghayad, head of Economics and Global Labor Markets at LinkedIn, that hiring through the employment-focused social media site sank 23 percent year over year in the U.S. in January and down 0.7 percent compared with December.

Duh!

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