Pac-12 mailbag: Mystery expansion candidate, market misread, unequal revenue shares, survival odds, more

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Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline mailbag: A look at if New Mexico is a possibility for Pac-12 expansion, and whether USC and UCLA's non-revenue programs might return to the conference.

Jon Wilner The San Jose Mercury News Editor's note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

After all, the fundamental tenets of our reporting strategy are 1) follow the money, and 2) listen to the silence. Wilner: Let's be clear at the outset: We don't know the details of any bids. Sure, there have been loads of rumors on both traditional and social media platforms, but it's all speculation.

Would Oregon and Washington have signed up for five or six years at $30 million without the Big 12's deal as a point of comparison — as a reality check?Do you think the Pac-12's upcoming media rights deal will have unequal revenue shares? If so, only in postseason distribution? Or do you anticipate some schools will get less ? — @Soren_Dorius• If the conference expands, the newcomers won't receive full shares at the outset of their membership and, perhaps, not for the entirety of...

However, any plan that creates unequal shares of the regular-season broadcast contract, which makes up the bulk of the conference's annual revenue, is fraught with trouble in the boardroom. We would strongly advise against that approach. The comments echoed those of Arizona president Robert Robbins, who said earlier this spring that he favored an extended timeline.

Wilner: The regents were never"likely" to block the move, but it was a non-zero possibility for several months. If the Bruins are forced to funnel the maximum to Cal and incur $10 million in elevated travel expenses, the move becomes much less of a financial windfall. I don't necessarily expect that sentiment for football and men's basketball but, rather, for the Olympic sports.

 

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