If the latest employment trends continue and economists’ forecasts prove true, Friday’s jobs report could bring back that pre-pandemic feeling. Economists expect the US economy to have added 180,000 jobs in April, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. Excluding the losses during the first year of the pandemic, that would be the smallest monthly gain since December 2019.
But it’s not clear yet how much further consumer spending could drop as a result of not only persistently high prices and increasing interest rates but also tighter lending conditions that result from broader banking turmoil, EY economist Gregory Daco noted. Mixed signals Payroll processor ADP’s monthly look at private-sector employment activity, released two days before the BLS’ employment report, is sometimes looked at as a preview of what to expect from the federal data.
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