The stock market can rally further, but here's why it's too early to celebrate the bear's demise

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Apple's rise to a $3 trillion market cap and beyond can lift the market in the short term, but BCA Research fears it faces big economic and valuation headwinds

Apple AAPL shares were a touch firmer in premarket action Thursday, leaving the iPhone maker just a couple of bucks or so shy of a $3 trillion valuation.

How big a market weighting such a monstrous capitalization will command by then is not known. But even now it’s common to hear the refrain that with a 7.6% weighting in the S&P 500, “as goes Apple, so goes the market.” . First the economic. Consumer spending on services, which is a main support of economic strength of late, is set to slow. “According to the ISM [services] PMI, the backlog of orders is already negative, while new orders are declining. This is hardly surprising as spending on services is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels,” says Tunkel.

Then there’s the market itself, which is expensive with much of the good news already baked in. Tunkel challenges the view that it’s only what she terms the top crust that is too richly valued. Markets U.S. stock-index futures ES00 YM00 NQ00 rose and benchmark Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y were also higher. The dollar index DXY was little changed while gold GC00 dipped and oil CL.1 gained.

 

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