US hiring remains slow, with a modest Nonfarm Payrolls increase of 187,00 in August, on top of a downside revision.Markets are set to celebrate the lack of evidence of an imminent recession., but when it is the world's largest economy rather than flights, it is big news for financial markets. America's labor market continues growing, yet critically, at a slower pace that strikes the perfect balance for inflation to fall and ongoing economic growth.
Wage growth slowed – only 0.2% MoM in August, which is an annualized rate of 2.5%. Year on year, wage growth is only 4.3%, also below estimates. The economic calendar showed an expected increase of 170,000 positions in August, similar to the figures originally published for July. Real estimates were somewhat lower, after a series of disappointing data released ahead of the publication, most notably ADP's first miss after several beats. speech.
The Fed still has nearly three weeks until its September decision – and the all-important Consumer Price Index report to consider ahead of its decision. Nevertheless, it would take an extraordinarily high CPI to cause the bank to hike in September. It would take much worse figures to scare markets of an imminent recession, resulting in a stock sell-off and a surge in demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. Could this happen? Perhaps, but not right now. Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets.