, both outcomes the Fed wants. So the question surrounding the central bank's meeting is less about what the Fed does in September and more about the policy decisions that come after that.
"We expect the 2023 median policy rate forecast to show one more 25bp hike, for a terminal rate of 5.5-5.75%," Gapen wrote. "Perhaps the most important forecast is the 2024 median, which in our view will shift up by 25bp to 4.875%, reflecting just 75bp of cuts next year. This would be about 40bp above current market pricing. Risks are skewed toward an even larger upshift in the 2024 median, which would be a significantly hawkish outcome.
After not reaching a new contract agreement, 13,000 UAW members entered a strike at GM's Wentzville, Mo., plant , Stellantis' Toledo Assembly , and Ford's Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne . "The impact would cloud the incoming economic data for the next few months, making it harder for the Fed to claim that the figures are breaking decisively one way or the other," Oxford Economics economists Michael Pearce and Nancy Vanden Houten wrote in a note on Wednesday. "That would add, at the margin, to the case for a pause in rates."
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