NEW YORK - A wild week in Treasury markets is set to culminate with the U.S. payrolls report on Friday, and some investors believe benign data could bring calm after a selloff pushed government bonds to pre-financial crisis levels.
Some market participants believe a weaker-than-expected September employment reading on Friday may be seen as further evidence that the Federal Reserve’s 525 basis points of tightening are starting to dent the labor market, potentially bolstering the case for policymakers to begin cutting rates sooner than expected - or at least forego another interest rate hike later in the year.
Spencer Hakimian, CEO of Tolou Capital Management, a New York-based macro hedge fund, said a benign report on Friday could spark a turnaround in battered Treasuries. Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities, estimated that 10-year yields, which stood at around 4.7% on Thursday, could go as high as 5% should payrolls largely exceed expectations. That would be a level not seen since 2007.Economists surveyed by Reuters said nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in August. But the wide range of forecasts - from 90,000 to 250,000 - suggests there could be surprises in store.
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