The collectible watch market knows the falling price of everything and the value of nothing

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Jack Baruth was born in Brooklyn, New York, and lives in Ohio. He is a pro-am race car driver and a former columnist for Road and Track and Hagerty magazines who writes the Avoidable Contact Forever newsletter.

There have been expensive wristwatches for as long as there have been wristwatches of any kind, but it took the arrival of the smartphone and various other digital assistants to light a fire under the “luxury timepiece” business. There’s some justification for it, actually.

The market proved able to support inanities like watch-rental schemes — just $1,000 a month or more to borrow and wear someone else’s Rolex — and investment vehicles that held Pateks instead of preferred shares. It was a party with no end, a rising tide that lifted even the leakiest of boats from third-rate brands such as Tag Heuer and Ulysse Nardin … until it wasn’t.

Morgan Stanley, which tracks prices of “investment-grade” watches from Rolex and other brands, announced in an October research report that prices in the secondhand market have dropped as much as 20% year over year. That puts prices back where they were at the beginning of 2021, but nobody thinks this will be the end of the bloodletting. Another year like this, and used luxury watches will sell for their approximate MSRP new.

 

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