Morgan Stanley U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson has been among the most bearish Wall Street forecasters, expecting a slowdown in both corporate profit and economic growth. In his recently released 2024 outlook, however, he sees light at the end of the tunnel and began preparing clients for a new market rally. Weak manufacturing activity and deteriorating earnings revision breadth keep Mr. Wilson cautious for the very near term.
But his proprietary leading earnings indicator implies a strong recovery in profits in early 2024. The expected drivers of an earnings resurgence are not only cyclical – an improving economy – but also secular as artificial intelligence improves productivity and profit margins. Morgan Stanley sees the positive effects of AI becoming visible in corporate results in 2024 and adding 30 basis points to net margins in 2025
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