We now know that this pessimism was overdone. Manufacturing activity
Consequently, the central government was able to raise the threshold below which no income tax is paid and to add a tax deduction for parental elder care. It had room to cut taxes for small businesses. It can cut the value-added tax and spend upward of 1.5% of GDP on railways, roads, and other projects, asTo be sure, China’s corporate debt load is heavy. Total social financing is still expected to grow by 10% this year, faster than nominal GDP.
But Trump’s tariff talk is consistently worse than his bite. When other countries refuse to roll over and accept his demands, he has a history of accepting limited concessions and declaring victory, as with the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. There is every sign now that a similar cosmetic agreement is in the offing with China.
As a result, Trump’s tariff threats will continue to roil global markets and international relations. But they will not culminate in a full-blown tariff war and complete collapse of the multilateral system.
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