discusses the long-term positive impacts that President Biden's tariffs on Chinese imports will have on American industry, including for the energy sector and green energy initiatives.We are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money.
And I think many people and I share this opinion is going A I is going to change things as much as the internet did when it came about 3040 years ago.And as you said, it's been a, a key component to the overall growth in this market.If you go back and look at all the eight cycles going back to 1950 you look at all those slow cut rate cycles, the average return from the very first cut is about 23%.
Also we on the flip side, tech, the big winner today JB Circuit, the contract chip maker, electronics maker, leading gains there today after its earnings, industrials also doing well and just quickly as well want to go back and take a look actually at what's going on in the commodity market. I think increasingly it's becoming clear that interest rates are simply normalized back to where they were before the great financial crisis.So I don't think that we actually need the fed to cut interest rates for the market to continue to go up on earnings.So do you what you, what's gonna be the main sort of tail wind for the continued gains in earnings that you are expecting?
And then I think we're gonna see better than expected economic growth lower than expected inflation with real wages going up and expanding profit margins. So I, I think that's where the story lies is in the productivity boom uh based on the productivity uh revolution ed, what do you think is the biggest risk to further upside in the market?Anticipate recessions.
Uh, and then in April we had to sell off as, as you typically do when there are too many bulls and not enough bears.But, uh, all in all I think the market, uh, is, uh, is in good shape from a fundamental perspective in terms of earnings, uh, valuation is, is, is definitely stretched. I told him to take the rest of the year off and I, I haven't heard them announce that they will do that.Look, uh I think the economy is gonna continue to grow with inflation moderating.Uh uh My concern actually is if they do come in and lower interest rates and then we'll have uh something more like the late 19 nineties where uh you know, party like it's 1999 that uh would, would be the song that comes to mind.
JP Morgan has a lot of ca extra capital even by their own standards saying that um he did not want to buy back more of the stock at these prices. Um But then we have this combination of the commercial bank and the investment bank and trading and all these other things that's cib the, the commercial and investment bank and that's a new reshuffling of management.
But beyond that, you know, this is a comment that comes from CFO Emily Reuter at the JP Morgan conference and she said basically she doesn't exede that she doesn't expect them to, to exceed their gross transaction value grid. The other thing is most of the analysts I saw said that they expected that the company had already sort of telegraphed it was doing this.And so that would be a prime short squeeze uh candidate.He said it's interesting that unlike a few competitors, hims is only offering compounded G LP ones and this is for 100 and 99 a month or 199 a month.That would be we go vo ZIC, but that's just for now, it could change later.
Those types of investments that you make that have to be enduring for multiple years need to have the backdrop of a stable policy environment.So the type of policies and tariffs that were put in place announced last week, plus some of the other changes made by the administration give companies like mine as well as others confidence to make these types of investments.
And when we, we see ourselves through the next couple of years as we exit 2025 we'll have 14 gigawatts of capacity.30,000 jobs here in the US with a domestic manufacturing supply chain and a $2.8 billion annual payroll impact.Um We provide certainty to our customers and it's showing up in the demand for our product um mark uh while these tariffs may be good for the the uh domestic solar industry, they're not necessarily good for the domestic energy transition.
And we all know that China also has a tendency towards retaliation and Europe is actually taking some actions right now, they're trying to create a more level playing field and, and, and the Chinese are actually starting to retaliate. um tariffs, let's say the tariffs add 10 cents a watt to a module that to a power price is about $3 a megawatt hour to a kilowatt hour, which is most what most ratepayers see it about 3/10 of a cent, a cent, excuse me.
You also, it's my understanding would push not just for tariffs on China but also on some of the other solar panel producers, places like Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia.In other words, if you're already getting these incentives in the US, the tariffs are already on China, why then also the tariffs on some of our trading partners that are not adversaries.
And this is really to address Chinese own and control companies that happen to move some portion of the supply chain into Southeast Asia Mark.Stay tuned, more market domination after this.Our goal to help cut through that noise to navigate the best moves for your portfolio.Joining me here to discuss bar and senior writer I out good to see you Thanks for being here.
It's a totally different uh company with different leadership and it's really poised, I think to uh start to close the gap uh versus some of the leaders which we'll talk about, I mean, effectively it's back to being a boring old insurance business, which sometimes as we learn from the financial crisis is not a bad thing, right?You alluded to the leadership here, Peter Zaffino took over a couple of years ago and you think he's in a good place.
Quick question for you on the phenomenon we've seen of insurers pulling out of certain states or certain regions that they are finding more difficult to insure.This is much more traditional uh property and personal lines business, right? So that leaves it trading at about uh 12 times operating profit on 25 numbers versus that seven times we have for a IG uh Evan Greenberg.Yeah.And it's the same sort of trends, right.
So the risk is Berkshire says, you know what I'm gonna take over the whole thing that hasn't happened in a while.Now, that was what was disclosed that sent that stock up so much.But uh the the biggest risk would be that he does something that he does something like that.Well, OK, let's summarize what we're telling people.
And one of the things that uh Miss Tom o'malley is writing there, we uh there have been concerns through the quarter of a possible air pocket and that's a big thing for NVIDIA in the, in the middle of the year ahead of the Blackwell launch.Um Although the analyst is saying these calls are seemingly overblown, so maybe just uh not as bad as people thought, we still do not see evidence of this occurring with the tone from our checks remaining mostly unchanged.
Among them though Qualcomm here was the most mentioned it also in addition to opening up copilot and adding A I to General P CS, opens up a new front and uh kind of an exciting front uh in the, the overall computer landscape uh where Microsoft and Apple are now back going toe to toe. And now they're hoping to kick start a whole new cycle with this A I PC era led by their co-pilot plus P CS is what they're calling them.Thank you so much and we'll hear more from you tomorrow as all of the excitement continues.We'll speak to Qualcomm CFO and Coo Akash PWAA about that Qualcomm Microsoft partnership.We'll take a closer look in our investor playbook.
Yeah, if you break it down into copper, I mean, you know, when you trade commodities, it doesn't matter what it is, you really got to identify two characteristics when investing it's a supply demand, imbalance and its market momentum. And this comes at a time when increased regulation makes it harder for additional supplies of these metals to come into a light and end up in the end user's hands.Can you give us an overview and these are very different companies uh depending on what's mined and scattered throughout the world, different geopolitical structures and, and things at play.
Um The reality is this is really a squeeze that's happening in the financial community more than in the physical market.Um And definitely, um you know, the phenomenon of Russian material not being able to delivered to the US is causing a physical squeeze in terms of the miners.Uh It's hard to explain if how sticky they'll really be from what we just described.
Sizing of the uh more recent plays that we had recommended to our clients was a particular call spread where it's a calculated risk trade, which has a favorable risk to reward ratio, but it also defined the risks involved. But I'm curious what you think about the trajectory for those medals and which miners might be best poised to take advantage?We do have uh exposure through Freeport where they do mine gold or um their grass mine is the largest gold producer in the world and it's a great by-product credit benefit to them.So it's a, it's an incremental positive for sure for Freeport.
So you always got to keep your 1 ft out of the door here and be ready to, you know, be the first person to leave. Michael Burry bought about $8 million worth of a trust that owns physical gold bullion. John Paulson has been betting big on gold for years.Want Decades of Passive Income? 2 Energy Stocks to Buy Now and Hold Forever
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