Agricultural outlook: What to expect for South Africa’s maize and oilseed market

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White maize prices are likely to be 30% higher, with yellow maize up by 20%

When viewed annually, the white maize harvest is down 26%, with yellow maize down 10% from the 2022-23 season. File photo

We are now at the end of the 2023-24 summer grains and oilseed season. This comprises white maize, yellow maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum and dry beans. If we zoom into the main crops, the white and yellow maize harvest could be 6.3 million tonnes and 7.1 million tonnes . These revisions place the total maize production estimate at 13.4 million tonnes .

I am optimistic that this harvest may materialise and meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of roughly 12 00 million tonnes, leaving the country with roughly 1.4 million tonnes for exports . About 840 000 tonnes will probably be white maize, with 600 000 tonnes likely to be yellow maize. Still, the estimated exports of 1.4 million tonnes are down notably from 3.4 million tonnes in the previous season.

Regarding oilseeds, the 2023-24 soybean harvest was unchanged from last month to 1.7 million tonnes . Moreover, the sunflower seed harvest estimate was unchanged from last month at 649 250 tonnes . This annual decline results from poor yields.

 

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