China’s GDP figures, U.S. retail sales and a rate decision by the European Central Bank headline the coming week, while earnings are under way on both sides of the Atlantic and UK markets get nervy ahead of the new government’s first budget.China’s third-quarter growth figures, due Oct. 18, are headlining a busy week scattered with data releases from the world’s second-largest economy.
Alongside GDP data, China will release figures on trade, house prices and retail sales, giving policymakers a clue on how much work they have cut out for them before year-end.The ECB is set to deliver another quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, a move policymakers were reluctant to flag and traders gave less than a 25% chance to when the bank met a month ago.
But a more explicit shift may come soon, perhaps in December when the bank releases new forecasts. Even top hawk Isabel Schnabel has dropped her long-standing warning about the difficulty of taming inflation.Markets get another reading on the health of the U.S. consumer on Thursday, with investors hoping retail sales data will offer further insight into an economy that is turning out to be far more resilient than many had expected.
With earnings season under way, results from big banks including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, both reporting on Tuesday, could offer further insight on how consumers are faring.LVMH and ASML - two of Europe’s biggest companies - are due to report results in the coming week, kicking off earnings season on the continent.
With the STOXX 600 index less than 2% from its all time high, a more robust earnings picture could bring fresh peaks, as seen in the U.S. in recent days.Britain’s lenders in international bond markets are getting nervous ahead of the new Labour government’s first budget on Oct. 30. September inflation data, out Wednesday, could make them feel even worse.