S&P 500 Earnings: The Incredibly-Strong US Dollar Needs to Gradually Weaken

Usually, this blog sees more frequent posts and updates on a whole spate of investment areas and topics, but an early December ’24 fishing trip to Florida and then a long-awaited knee-replacement surgery that was badly needed in order to continue some of the various exercise and workout activities I’ve engaged in since my mid-40’s, has left fewer posts for clients and readers.

Higher Treasury yields attracts foreign capital ) central banks are cutting rates, hence the US dollar rises as a result of better absolute yields in the US. Watch the Core PCE data which is typically reported the last week of every month. The December Core PCE data will next be released in late January ’25.The upshot of the US dollar update is that if you follow the UUP, it looks as if the US dollar COULD be putting in a long “double-top” technically. If the US dollar gradually weakens, this development would likely be a plus for US stocks, international stocks, and US bond market asset class returns looking forward into 2025 and 2026.

This blog is less bullish for the S&P 500 for calendar 2025, but a weaker dollar could help mitigate or ameliorate weaker equity returns in calendar 2025 if they should materialize.None of this is advice or a recommendation, but only an opinion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any information contained above, may or may not updated, and if updated, may not be done so in a timely fashion.

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