As Russia trims its supply and China ramps up consumption, the oil market will tip into a deficit, lifting prices above $90 a barrel towards the second half of 2023, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, February 28.
A survey of 49 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $89.23 a barrel this year, slipping from the $90.49 consensus in January, but still above current levels of around $83. West Texas Intermediate US crude was projected to average $83.94 per barrel in 2023, below the previous month’s $85.40 forecast.
Brent prices are seen rising above $90 per barrel in the second half of the year after averaging around $85 in the first quarter and $88.60 in the second quarter on slower demand from key consuming regions such as Europe and the United States, some of the analysts said. “The impact of the price cap for both crude and product [is] less than initially expected due to the emergence of substitution trades,” said Florian Gruenberger, senior analyst at Kpler, referring to international sanctions aimed atGruenberger expects a 600,000 barrel-per-day year-on-year hit to Russian supply from lower domestic intake, weaker demand, and slightly lower exports.