Most analysis that is posted about the market is just a regurgitation of common fallacies as to what drives and affects the market, or just telling us what the market is doing at this moment while linearly expecting that to continue in the future, or simply retaining the same perspective all the time no matter what the market does while claiming that the market is wrong. And, I get so frustrated when I read it over and over.
I know which one to me is a more reasonable approach. And, yes, I know that"everyone" repeats it all the time. But, no one really thinks either. I can assure you that this is an outright fallacy, yet it is commonly regurgitated.My second question to you is do you really believe employment numbers or GDP are"leading indicators?" They are numbers about what has happened in the past.
Second, as far as interest rates . . well, interest rates were around the same place when the market was around 4600SPX as they were when the market was around 3500SPX. So, gotta throw that out the window also. And, this is the crux of what is wrong with most analysis today. It suggests that ‘as long as all conditions remain as I want them to be,’ then the market will follow a myriad of factors to determine which direction it will travel. Do you see the issue with this type of market perspective?
“Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur. When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship. When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit. When you challenge most investors or analysts with these anomalies, they are often quite flummoxed and stumble for an answer. You can see the debate I quoted above as an example. You see, there are many beliefs that investors and analysts maintain. But, how many have actually tested those beliefs with actual facts? I am sad to say, very few. If they did, they would not maintain those beliefs when there are facts in complete contravention of their belief.
The difference between the manner in which I view the market and the manner in which others view it is that I am afforded a larger degree of context to the market in using Elliott Wave analysis. In fact, market context is what is sorely missing from most analyses. Moreover, even before that reversal became evident, I outlined my expectation for the reversal to carry us to the 4375-4505SPX region. And, while the market even exceeded the target we set before the reversal occurred, I was urging my subscribers and money manager clients to raise cash as we moved into the target region. I wanted to see the nature of the decline I expected thereafter in order to know if it was safe to move back into the market.
In simple terms, due to the market’s drop to the 4100SPX region, it has now provided us an environment that can set up a market crash which would point us down to the 2900-3300SPX region before another multi-year bear market rally begins. Will it actually happen? Well, I cannot tell you that with a high degree of probability just yet. I will need to see how the next rally takes shape. But, make no mistake about it. The drop to 4100SPX has certainly increased that probability.
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