The first earnings recession for the S&P 500 since 2016 is taking shape

Earnings reporting season is more than half over, and hopes for an improvement to growth, which historically has taken hold in the latter half of the year, are fading fast.

Through Tuesday morning, 264 of the 505 S&P 500 companies SPX, -0.26%, or 52.3%, had reported second-quarter results. The aggregate blended earnings-per-share estimate, which includes both actual and estimated results, was for a decline of 2.24%, according to FactSet data, compared with an estimate of a 3.0% decline just before earnings reporting season started.

That would suggest second-quarter EPS growth could eventually improve to growth of about 0.7% from a decline of 3.0% at the start of the season. So with the current improvement at just 80 basis points, to negative 2.2% from negative 3.0% at the start of earnings season, the odds of a typical swing to growth have diminished.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the third quarter has worsened. The blended EPS estimate is for a decline 2.2%, compared with a decline of 1.1% at the start of earnings season.

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