-- A positive earnings season could provide a lifeline to a stock market rattled by ever-rising bond yields and mixed economic data.There’s a long list of headwinds for equities: the unresolved debate over whether the economy will experience a hard or soft landing, volatility in bonds that’s discouraging risk appetite, a strengthening dollar and geopolitical uncertainties.
Stocks could be subject to further volatility spikes — such as the one recorded in the Cboe Volatility Index in recent days — until markets see signs that bond yields are really peaking, which may not happen until the Federal Reserve’s next meeting in November. In the meantime, investor attention will turn to earnings, with the season kicking off next week in the U.S.
With profit margins near record highs globally, bolstered post-Covid era consumer demand, any normalization in these could deliver a wake-up call for analysts and investors alike. Disinflation, higher inventories and sluggish new order intakes highlighted in PMI activity readings, especially in Europe, all point to more constrained profitability.
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