In six years as governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz has tried to guide Canada’s economy back to calm waters in the endless wake of the 2008 global banking crisis. But trouble won’t stay away, and lately it’s the prospect of a global trade war that has him worried. He spoke to Maclean’s senior writer Paul Wells a day after announcing he won’t raise interest rates because the economy still needs help.
I already talked about trade, and we have the special consideration here, not just the global trade war but the uncertainty about the new NAFTA, which is now in doubt around ratification. So that delays investment further. A little bit more than a year ago, in 2017, you said we’re quite close to “home” and getting closer. What does home look like, and why aren’t we quite there yet? So home is the place where inflation is on target, running at two per cent, and the economy is operating at its full potential, unemployment’s about as low as you can expect it to be. We were home through all of 2017 and most of 2018.
Trump has done a few things on tariffs especially that I know preoccupy you. Is there any way that story could turn so sour as to provoke a new global recession? Oh, certainly. I mean, when we think about the gains in income and living standards that have been created by trade liberalization in the postwar period. To erase even a portion of those would be to risk causing a recession, a global one.
No. I wouldn’t know. That’s what I’m saying. I run into people on the street and they ask me, “Hey, how’s Mark?” And I’m like, “Great, and I’m doing okay, too.”The level of coordination among bank governors is higher than usual, I expect, in a weird time? It’s very high. I mean, I would say there’s always been a tradition of that. Basically, every second month, around six to eight weeks apart, and at least the 15 biggest ones have dinner together, and there’s a wide open conversation.
Do you find yourself having to explain why independent central banks are a good thing? Yes, and here we are. Not nearly often enough. Okay, so I’m going to show you something. Six weeks ago, I got this at the Mandarin Ogilvie just down the road, and you can read it out to the folks.
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