Using history as a guide, Bank of America Securities curated a "bear market signposts" list for clients to help gauge when stocks might be close to bear market territory.
Bank of America Securities curated a "bear market signposts" list for clients to help predict when stocks might be close to embarking on a bear market. The list of 19 signals ranges from fundamental to sentiment-related indicators and uses data tracking back more than 50 years. The signposts list was almost triggered in October of 2018 when it hit 79%. The S&P 500 went on to briefly dip into bear market territory on an intraday basis following that signal, and suffered its worst December since the Great Depression. The Fed raising rates, as they did in 2018, is a trigger on the bear market signal list, as bear markets have always been preceded by the Fed hiking rates by at least 75 basis points from the cycle trough.
Stocks with low price-to-earnings ratios are also currently underperforming, flashing a bear market warning sign. Stocks with low PE ratios are generally considered undervalued and can be a good buying opportunity. When investors don't buy into these cheap stocks it normally means they are crowding in high growth names. This means that the most expensive stocks are narrowly driving market returns.
as the outlook around the labor market improved. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose to 131.6 this month from 126.5 in December. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected consumer confidence to rise to 128. Any reading below 100 signals a bear market could be coming.
Look on a 10 year calendar. Or when the Stock market is at an all time high.
Backward looking exercises are not always predictive of future outcomes! This is a fat tail event driven by an unpredictable exogenous shock! Difficult to say how deep the mkt will go
“: Here's a list of signs that a bear market is coming.
The market is in a mega Fed-Trump bubble.
You permabull charlatan muppets - this article is over 2 weeks old - try doing some proper journalism
Couldn’t be a reaction to a single event. Weakening economy fits your political agenda better than one single horrible global event. You people spread fear and panic to get the egg you want. Doesn’t matter how bad you torture the chicken.
It’s already here
This is a quickly evolving situation. Prob not smart to post something like this that is 2 weeks old!
Lol, down 15% already and shit us hit the fan, we don’t need any genius’s to tell us bears are coming
Just stop . Why do you encourage extreme reactions ?
Another Zero_Hedge CNBC ban from Twitter coming in 2021?
Keep repeating it long enough and eventually you’ll be right. Thanks for the tip.
Did you know that most of the idiots you have on your channel have never even see a bear market?
What’s a bear market? Oh the thing the fed made extinct? I’ve heard of them, kind of like a dodo bird I assume
If you keep saying coming for a decade or more, it is bound to eventually come at some point in time. Remember, time is all relative.
There is no way. It’s all a bunch of guessing and fake news.
BofA does great quantitative research but problem here is BACKTESTED stats. Any decent data miner can put together a similar list but how it does in real time is anyone's guess. If it were to fail, there'd be 25 factors next time.
I’m not sure CNBC is the source to rely on....they have been putting out bearish articles for years now.....ouch!
It's the end😁
I use the Reverse Kudlow method.
This is either true or those who short are trying to talk the market into going down
Lol 😂 you permabulls have zero clue
wallstreetbets no 🐻s allowed on the 🌑 Stonks only go up.
LOLOLOL there is no bear market coming
Corrección lógica después de una subida vertical sobretodo en USA. Buen momento de volver a las compras si se corrige entre el 5 y el 15% de los índices. La volatilidad y correcciones son sanas en el mercado, no lo olvidemos nunca. Buen fin de semana amigs y seguidors!!!
You guys said it was coming when the 10yr bond hit low, now the 30 came. You said China’s trade war would cause it, now coronavirus. Here’s the thing: nobody can predict exactly when it’ll happen, but we all know it eventually will but right at the wrong time is still wrong.
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La source: Forbes - 🏆 394. / 53 Lire la suite »
La source: Forbes - 🏆 394. / 53 Lire la suite »