It shows the hypothetical number of cases in a pandemic over time without an intervention and with an intervention. The dotted line represents the capacity of hospitals and healthcare systems. If social distancing goes well, this curve will be flattened, allowing hospitals to take in and discharge patients without being overwhelmed. The result? More people will get access to the healthcare and attention they need, and, hopefully, fewer people will die.
Testing will catch people who are sick enough to go to the hospital, but not necessarily people who have mild or no symptoms. And those people could still spread to that average 2.2 other people. To prevent this, many states have issued stay-at-home orders, which allow only essential businesses like grocery stores and pharmacies to remain open.
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