Quarantining makes sense for post-acute care — when a COVID-19 patient is stable enough to be discharged from a hospital, but still may be infectious.Earlier on, people with symptoms who suspect they may be infected could also report to quarantine on a voluntary basis. This could be especially effective in dense urban areas where families share tight quarters. Our analysis shows the spread could be significantly reduced if even a fraction of symptomatic people choose this option.
Our model allows us to examine how varying degrees of hotel quarantine will impact the epidemiologic trajectory of COVID-19. As a simple measure of when to reopen society, we considered the time it takes for the level of infections to drop substantially below the pre-lockdown level. On our current trajectory, we estimate this would take approximately 100 days. We then compare a scenario where all hospitalized patients receive post-acute care in a quarantine hotel for seven days against the status quo.
Our results suggest that the time to reopening can be shortened by 11%. In addition, assuming symptomatic people are infectious, if 50% of them are quarantined before getting sick enough to go to the hospital,and the time till reopening can be shortened by 86%. By equipping centralized quarantine sites with doctors and basic medical supplies, we can provide timely and proactive treatments to individuals under quarantine, thus substantially reducing the risk of patients needing
Columbia_Biz StanfordGSB What beds are in short supply? Hospitals are literally empty outside NYC and even in the city there is no bed shortage.
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