The IEA said that cuts from countries outside OPEC+, including the US and Canada, meant output was 3 million barrels per day lower in April than it was at the start of 2020. It could be 4 million barrels per day in June, according to the report, and continue to fall even further.
The IEA increased its forecast for global demand by 3.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 79.3 million. For the year, the group's demand forecast was increased by 700,000 barrels per day, but still is on track for an annual plunge of 8.6 million barrels per day. "Oil production is reacting in a big way to market forces and economic activity is beginning a gradual-but-fragile recovery. However, major uncertainties remain," the IEA wrote in the report. A major risk is that there is a second wave of COVID-19 as economies reopen, which could further hinder demand if lockdowns need to be reinstated.
"The picture is still very bleak for the industry," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a tweet. "The heaviest demand destruction may be behind us, but huge uncertainties remain."
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