This spot-on predictor of who will win the 2020 presidential election is not the stock market or even opinion polls

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Trying to predict who will win the 2020 election? Don't rely on using data from the stock market, or even opinion polls, says Mark Hulbert. Check out online betting markets instead: (OPINION)

Does the stock market predict the winner of U.S. presidential elections? Many argue that it does, pointing to the historical correlation between the incumbent party retaining the White House and the stock market’s strength in the months leading up to Election Day in November.

For example, the stock market’s year-to-date strength on Election Day is not correlated with the incumbent party’s chances. Nor is the market’s strength over the eight months leading up to the election. But, strangely, when the focus is on market strength over a period whose length is between these two — specifically, nine months rather than eight or 10 — the result in fact does become statistically significant.

Watch the betting markets If these results aren’t enough to lead you to question the stock market’s record as an election handicapper, check out electronic betting markets such as PredictIt.org and the University of Iowa’s Iowa Electronic Markets.

 

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