Will the global experiment in modern monetary theory lift whole economies or just boost asset prices? Will it sow inflation or will recessionary deflation continue? Other trends are clearer. Here are five:From my Silicon Valley perspective, the biggest global business story prior to Covid-19 was a brisk acceleration of the rate of technology evolution—and it is still undergoing a transformation that ensures the industry’s continued growth.
What markets see is a reasonably fast recovery—not a V-shape, but a “skinny U” as Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business, put it recently. Still, it may take 18 to 24 months to return to January 2020 levels of global GDP. But by the third quarter, the growth rates will be impressive compared with the basement of March 2020.While some sectors like tech and shipping were stable, small family businesses have been hit hard, and there are high unemployment rates among youth.
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