One investor explains how to make sense of Thursday's tech earnings crunch: Watch Apple

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With four of the five most valuable tech companies reporting earnings on Thursday, investors may be most focused on comments from Apple to understand the macro picture.

Those companies, worth almost $5 trillion in combined, have led the stock market to record levels this month even amid a coronavirus pandemic and growing economic crisis. They're trading at historically high multiples relative to expected earnings. And they're releasing financials a day after their CEOs testify to Congress about the power their companies possess and whether they should be subject to antitrust laws.

The earnings reports will amount to a giant data dump on everything from the state of online advertising and growth of one-day shipping to demand for cloud-computing services from companies adjusting to remote work., chief investment officer of People's United Advisors, the most important detail will come from the largest company by market cap.

"The No. 1 company for us, because we think they're such a bellwether, is Apple," said Traynor, whose firm oversees about $9 billion in investment assets. "We expect to see, historically speaking, a lighter quarter, but they'll hopefully give us some indication of what the fourth quarter will look like. Apple gives us such great insight into the the economy and tech spending."Apple's dominance in the smartphone market and its central role in delivering digital content makes the company a proxy for consumer strength and confidence in the broader economy.

While Apple still counts heavily on iPhone sales, the company's focus on services like apps, digital music and iCloud is paying off, particularly with people consuming more content from home. Analysts expect revenue growth in its services segment of 15% to $13.1 billion for the third quarter, and 13% to $14.2 billion in the fourth, according to FactSet.Tech stocks have pulled back a bit heading into this week's major earnings reports.

 

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