“The lack of progress suggests Congress may have exhausted its resolve,” Bank of America says, adding that “only a market correction would wake policymakers from their dogmatic slumber.”
The second risk to markets is a House-selected president, analysts say: Concerns about expanded voting procedures, mail-in ballots or recounts in contested states could delay election results, adding more uncertainty for investors. If that were to happen, “state officials could refuse to certify their electors,” meaning that the Constitution would require the House to select a president—but with one vote for each state delegation, “Republicans would likely hold the majority.”
The third factor that could impact markets, according to Bank of America, is a vaccine surprise: Six candidates are already in large-scale Phase 3 trials, with some starting mass production. But financial assets are not yet priced for a “return to normal” in 2021, the firm says, and “the risk worth considering is that an early vaccine could spark a significant tactical rotation out of deflationary defensives and into cyclical sectors.”“While others are hedging the election, consider preparing for a third-quarter buying opportunity,” Bank of America analysts said in their recent note.Stocks have rebounded strongly from their coronavirus pandemic lows in March—although the U.S.
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