S&P 500 predicted US election winner 87% of the time in 100 years - Business Insider

The S&P 500 has correctly predicted the election winner 87% of the time for nearly a century, although four major events this year pose a greater challenge to the 2020 vote, a top strategist said in a BNY Mellon webcast on Thursday.

He said Democrats could end up hurting themselves if they choose to vote through mail-in ballots, as that dramatically increases chances of error and delays the process.The S&P 500 index has correctly predicted the winner of the US presidential election 87% of the time over the last almost-100 years, strategist Dan Clifton of Strategas Research Partners said at a BNY Mellon webcast on Thursday.

However, four "transformational" events in 2020 — the COVID-19 pandemic, an ensuing recession, mass protests against racial injustice, and a US presidential election — pose a great challenge to potential outcomes this year, he said. Clifton said the next two months would be the "wildest" ever in politics, and provided a 3-point framework to understand potential outcomes: When the COVID-19 caseload was rising, there was a referendum on Donald Trump. But since cases peaked, it has become more of a choice between Trump and Joe Biden.

Guess it’s gonna be Trump

the woman calling is complaining about anonymous sources and likely the same person that accepts when Fox News tells her 'Some people say' as a written in stone source.

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