The “Presidential Predictor,” popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 index’s SPX, -1.21% performance from July 31 to Oct. 31. Going back to 1944, it’s found that a positive move over that period usually corresponds to a presidential victory by the incumbent party, while a negative move signals a loss .
Polls show Democratic challenger Joe Biden leading Trump nationwide, though his advantage has narrowed in recent weeks. Biden is also seen ahead in key battleground states, though strategists see some scope for Trump to pull out an Electoral College victory, but his path appears more difficult than in 2016.
Fears of a contested election outcome, in which results aren’t clear for days or even weeks amid legal and political wrangling have been cited as a big worry for investors. The indicator twice failed to correctly predict defeat for the incumbent party — in 1968, when Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey; and 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Democratic President Jimmy Carter.
Dead wrong! It’s the 3 months thru to the election that is the indicator. That means Nov 2nd should be included and your start date should be 8/3. Ignoring the November trading days leading up makes no sense. The result is a completely different outcome. trump wins, by a hair
That is the result, not a predictor, based on polls It didn't work in 2016 because the polls were wrong It will not work this time either because the polls are wrong also
lol fake news
I don't think there's any question the market has priced in a Biden win. The problem is the amount of damage trump can still do for another 3 months
Vote Trump out!
MarketWatch, it’s media like this that makes folks tune out and not trust you! Keep it up, you’ll be about as relevant as CNN, MSDNC and the rest of MSM. GET OUTTA HERE!! 🙄
3269.96 Crazy. But I need all the positive signals I can get...
MarketWatch a propaganda outfit for the DNC.
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