An inflation storm is coming for the U.S. housing market

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The way that government statisticians track the price of consumer goods may be missing just how explosive home-price growth has been in recent months. Inside the inflation storm coming for the housing market:

Fast-rising housing costs have helped to push inflation to a 13-year high. But the way that government statisticians track the price of consumer goods may be missing just how explosive home-price growth has been in recent months.

“ The latest edition of the consumer price index indicated housing prices have risen 2.2% over the past year, while other reports suggest home prices are up more than 13%. ” Secondly, rental data to establish how prices are changing are collected every six months. The calculations for most other CPI items are collected monthly or bimonthly.

And they ask renters: “What is the rental charge to your [household] for this unit including any extra charges for garage and parking facilities? Do not include direct payments by local, state or federal agencies. What period of time does this cover?” “ Some 9.2 million ‘extremely low-income’ renters are spending more than a third of their income on shelter-related expenses ”

“ Home prices can rise both because the actual structure itself may be worth more — thanks to the rising cost of labor and lumber — but also because people see value in it as a capital investment. ” Why housing inflation is different People experience inflation vis-à-vis housing differently to most other products, and that makes it a challenging to measure.“If you have a fixed mortgage, on your home, year over year, how much does your cost of living in that home change? Not very much,” Fleming said. “The only things that change year over year are your escrows for taxes and insurance.”

But Americans do need to know how much housing costs are rising or falling — not the least of which because residential real-estate makes up such a huge portion of the nation’s economy. But owners aren’t asked what their mortgage payment is — after all, not everyone has a mortgage. Instead, that’s why they are asked to estimate how much they would be able to charge for rent to lease out their current home.

A new analysis from Fannie Mae FNMA, -0.83% showed that there is typically a lag between when home prices are actually rising, and when that price growth is reflected in inflation reports like the consumer price index. Those effects are beginning to dissipate, but will continue to weigh on official measures like the consumer price index given the time lags that occur.

“Deflation has turned into inflation, not because interest rates have gone up — they’ve only gone up a little bit — but because house prices are just crazy,” Fleming said.

 

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It is new... That is it

gtconway3d Only the rich and the smartest of the poor have a home to borrow against...the rest of us are effed...its old and homeless and mentally ill 4 me In My dotage

gtconway3d How much of this is affected by Koch industries price gouging building materials?

gtconway3d Do you really think the blind, hard of hearing and most disabled people understand this shit. It makes me angry that my President forget the disabled Americans

gtconway3d It’s been here awhile

gtconway3d Because we returned to the old loan programs with a new name. No one has learned a damn thing except that the taxpayer will bail out the greedy banks & now add in hedge fund bundlers looking to become landlords.

We wouldn't know here about inflation for homes. Always high here in San Diego. Location, Location especially a 60 mile coast line. The median price for a detached home is $825.000

gtconway3d How much will this increase homelessness

gtconway3d Duh! The government has NOT been factoring in the explosive housing market in inflation for decades!

Affordable home ownership did nt just happen by itsekf (aka the invisible hand of the market) it's a very specific Government policy from the days of the New Deal

MJKellySmith I have already seen it! My family was talking about real estate, and I went to Zillow to check the latest 'Zestimate', and I found it about 30-40K higher than it has been! Crazy! (Highest I've ever seen for the price/estimate for this house, even since the last property boom!)

gtconway3d Is this why housing prices in my area of the country jumped 60-80% since a year or two ago? Buying a house once I thought in reach this year has evaporated.

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