It was a rout for the history books, with the benchmark gauge down 21 per cent in the first six months of the year -- the most for such a span since 1970. The superlatives kept piling up across Wall Street, with 10-year US yields plunging to about 3 per cent from a decade-high of 3.5 per cent in mid-June. The dollar had for its best quarter since 2016. The nearly 60 per cent drawdown in Bitcoin since the end of March was the largest since the third quarter of 2011.
“The stagflation that has gripped our country right now is going to make it tough on the stock market over the intermediate term,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. “When demand is not the key reason why inflation is a problem, a slower economy is not going to help bring inflation down as much as some experts seem to think.”
After a rough first half of the year, July will be pivotal for the future direction of markets amid corporate earnings, key inflation data and the Fed meeting, according to Greg Marcus, managing director at UBS Private Wealth Management. He says volatility will probably remain elevated until there’s evidence that inflation is moderating, recession risks are receding and geopolitical threats are declining.
But dismal performance is not an indication of what’s to come. The US equity benchmark lost 21 per cent in the first half of 1970, during a period of high inflation that the current environment has been compared with. It gained 27 per cent during the last six months of that year.
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