‘The psychology has changed so quickly’: Why stock-market lows may be retested as S&P 500 enters its weakest stretch of year

  • 📰 MarketWatch
  • ⏱ Reading Time:
  • 77 sec. here
  • 3 min. at publisher
  • 📊 Quality Score:
  • News: 34%
  • Publisher: 97%

Belgique Nouvelles Nouvelles

Belgique Dernières Nouvelles,Belgique Actualités

When U.S. investors return from the long Labor-Day weekend, history indicates they’ll be facing the weakest time of the year for the S&P 500 index.

“Recession fears are the most likely trigger of a retest of the June lows,” said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, in an Aug. 31 note. “From a seasonality perspective, a retest could come in the next several weeks.”

Vanguard Group said in a Sept. 1 report that it downgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth this year after two straight quarters of contraction. The firm now expects economic growth of 0.25%–0.75% for full-year 2022, down from its estimate last month of about 1.5%. “The average non-recession bear lasts about seven months and has declined 25% , putting the January – June drop in line with the typical case,” Clissold wrote in the Ned Davis note. “Conversely, the average recession bear has lasted about a year and declined a mean of 35%.”

The “vigorous” rally in stocks seen earlier over the summer had reflected “too much optimism given we’re still in the early stages of fighting inflation,” said Crossmark’s Doll. Although he thinks inflation has peaked, Doll predicts that its continued decline this year will likely be irregular and finish 2022 above the Fed’s 2% target.

Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, the market narrative had switched away from the Fed fighting inflation through aggressive rate hikes to, “when are they going to pivot?” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. But using a relatively short speech, which had “no ambiguity,” Powell turned the focus back to monetary tightening and the Fed’s unfinished fight with inflation, sending “a very powerful message to the market,” said Sosnick.

But intermediate-term and long-term breadth needed to follow to confirm a bull market, he said, and without that confirmation, “a retest cannot be ruled out.”

 

Merci pour votre commentaire. Votre commentaire sera publié après examen.

jbegno1 Petróleo subiendo con fuerza... Y ya sabemos como le sienta eso al mercado USA en general. De hecho la semana pasada fue mala para Oil & Gas y ni aún así fue el SP capaz de romper la tendencia bajista de corto plazo. Y unos cuantos Drillers rompiendo en la sesión del viernes.

Market has BROKEN ever rule in n the history book so I’m prepared either way. Just glad I’m up and will be tax planning 2022 and seeing what may recover in 2023.

TradesTrey Oh look, Composite Man

Get ready for a Dark October

Nous avons résumé cette actualité afin que vous puissiez la lire rapidement. Si l'actualité vous intéresse, vous pouvez lire le texte intégral ici. Lire la suite:

 /  🏆 3. in BE

Belgique Dernières Nouvelles, Belgique Actualités

Similar News:Vous pouvez également lire des articles d'actualité similaires à celui-ci que nous avons collectés auprès d'autres sources d'information.

Bonds enter first bear market in at least 30 yearsThe bond market has entered its first bear market in more than 30 years. I'm JESUS ​​CHRIST 'Michael Archangel'the Vengeance and every kind of payment belong to me!There will be so much famine that you will eat the flesh of your children,and each one will eat the flesh of his neighbor.I am the angel of death,the son of God.When I act who will stop me? inflation...
La source: MarketWatch - 🏆 3. / 97 Lire la suite »

STOCK MARKET NEWS: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq sink despite jobs additions, Lululemon jumps, oil falls to $86Stocks ended the day and week lower in what has been a week of choppy trading amid mixed economic data. FOX Business is providing real-time updates on the markets, commodities and all the most active businesses on the move.
La source: FoxBusiness - 🏆 458. / 53 Lire la suite »

Bitcoin market dominance plumbs 4-year lows as BTC price ditches $20KA sub-$20,000 weekend begins for Bitcoin as market cap share dwindles. Historic drop in September, Bitcoin Well, it seems pretty good to me. I'm gonna keep buying BTC on Bitfinex while it's cheap. Who thinks it's not looking good? I see it as a good opportunity to buy BTC with USDT when the price is so low.
La source: Cointelegraph - 🏆 562. / 51 Lire la suite »