Fed easing rate hikes may be good news for housing market

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Experts are mixed on how much higher mortgage rates could go in 2023. “We expect mortgage rates to rise back above 7% for the first part of the year, and then decline as the economy slows,&#8…

raised a key interest rate just one-half a percentage point Wednesday. New data showing that inflation continues to decelerate likely played into the central bankers’ decision.

Others think the days of 7% interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans are in the rearview mirror. Mortgage rates “may have peaked,” Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research for the National Association of Realtors, commented via email. “Rates are still more than double those of a year ago, but if inflation continues to slow down, rates may stabilize near 6%.”

“Home price increases have started to decelerate, and prices will likely drop overall next year,” Frick said. “But drops will vary greatly by market, with many markets that have seen the highest appreciation experiencing the greatest declines.” Housing prices have increased so much in the past few years that “giving up 5% or even 10% overall is not a big drop,” Frick added.

Unless the economy takes a sharp turn into a recession, which would force the Fed to back off. That would be bad news overall but potentially good news for mortgage rates. Without the Fed’s upward pressure, rates could meaningfully fall.

 

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