Stock-Market Crash: Top 1% Fund Manager Warns 'Destruction' Coming

But just about all of the index's returns since January can be attributed to a few stocks.If you've been sitting on the sidelines of this rally, it can be tempting to jump in.

For Smead, the signs are obvious that this is a speculative episode. Year-to-date, only seven stocks have driven basically the entirety of the S&P 500's returns: Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, and Alphabet. That means bad news for the broader index when the episode is over, he said. He compared the concentration in several stocks to other manias, like the"Nifty Fifty" era in the early 1970s, the dot-com bubble in 2000, and shares of RCA in 1929.In the note, Smead shared three charts that show "how late we are in this particularly long-lasting mania for tech stocks."

"Sentiment and positioning has turned outright bullish as both retail and institutional investor sentiment has reached its highest levels in over 2 years and registered readings in the top quintile of the past several decades," said Mike Wilson, the CIO and chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, in a June 20 note."However, given our fundamental view on growth, we find it hard to get on board with the current excitement and narrative supporting it.

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