U.S. stocks might find some relief this week, analysts say, but that doesn’t mean this late-summer selloff is over.
For example, as of Friday’s close, just 15% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 20-day moving average, something cited by BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky and Jeffrey deGraaf of Renaissance Macro. Here’s a chart below courtesy of deGraaf and his team: Any bounce should peter out around 4,450, he said, while technical strategists are eyeing 4,200 on the S&P 500 as a reliable long-term support level. Readers may recall that 4,200 served as a durable ceiling for stocks for more than six months.
Another development that has raised eyebrows: the spread between Treasury yields and yields on corporate bonds has remained remarkably subdued, something that differentiates this latest selloff from when stocks fell to their 52-week lows in October, as well as the March ructions following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 stood at 19.4 in late July. That was higher than the five-year average of 18.6 and the 10-year average of 17.4, according to FactSet data. The index’s decline over the past three weeks has brought it to more manageable level of 18.6, in line with its five-year average.
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