Market Breadth has Weakened: Implications for S&P 500 & Nasdaq

As of Friday, around 18% of the members in the S&P 500 index were above their respective 20-day moving average . Data from 1996 onwards suggests that when 17%-20% of the members were above their respective 20 DMAs, the index was up 67% of the time over the subsequent 30 days. That is, in such instances, 67% of the time the index returns have been positive over the subsequent one-month period based on historical performance .

Distribution plot of S&P 500 index returns when 21%-24% of members are below their respective Lower Bollinger BandFurthermore, as of Friday, 17% of the members in the S&P 500 index had the 14-day Relative Strength Index below 30. Data from 1996 onwards suggests that when 15%-18% of the members had their 14-day RSI below 30, the index was up 68% of the time over the subsequent 30 days.

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