Don't look now, but the market is entering what's historically been a good period for investors. No, it's notRather, investors will be glad to know that October kicks off what is typically a good three months for stocks, following a month in September that historically tends to be rough. And Septembers have been especially rough lately. The S&P 500 index posted September declines of 3.9% in 2020, 4.8% in 2021, 9.3% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023.
Over the same period, the index has posted an average return of 4.2% in the final three months of the year — the highest of any quarter,. In fact, stocks have gone up in the fourth quarter 79.5% of the time — the highest success rate of any quarter.So does favorable fourth-quarter market history mean it's time to buy stock right now? Maybe, experts say.
But the fact that the market tends to be up in the fourth quarter is part of a larger reality that the market tends to be up more often than not in all four quarters. Just becauseIf historical strength in the stock market is the good news you need to stay optimistic when the stock market gets shaky, that's a good thing, says Ross Mayfield, an investment strategy analyst at Baird.
No matter how the market moves, some of your investments are likely to do better than others over the short term. That's why it's also smart to periodically rebalance your portfolio to your target asset allocations by selling some of your investments that have gone up in value and buying more of the stuff that lagged, says Sonders.
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