It’s early on Monday evening in New York, so it’s only right that Jamie Dimon is talking about his passion for cooking a classic New Yorker’s meal.
But where the market gives a 70 per cent to 80 per cent chance of a soft landing, Dimon’s probability is half that, while he puts the chances of a mild recession or a deeper recession over the next year or two at more like 65 per cent, with a stagflationary environment – that is, low growth and high inflation – the worst of all outcomes.
He points to huge spending on the green energy transition , on the rebuilding of supply chains, on the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act in the US, and on increased militarisation across the world.Fed should wait to cut rates That might give equity markets pause, given Dimon says valuations are in the top 10 per cent to 15 per cent of what we’ve seen in history. Bond markets are “basically telling you there’s gonna be no problem going forward”.But he sees hints of a bubble, particularly in areas such as gold and bitcoin, an asset class he remains very sceptical about, particularly given its use in the criminal world.
Dimon, who notes Trump is just ahead in betting markets, describes the presumptive Republican candidate as “an amazing political figure” with a strong base. But he expects “we’re going to see a lot of moving plates here, probably more than any election we’ve ever had”, as different parts of the electorate swing to and away from Trump.