JPM: Earnings beats may not advance stock market gains

JPMorgan strategists said consensus projections for earnings growth have been “moving materially lower” in recent months ahead of the Q1 2024 reporting season kick-off.

Despite declining earnings forecasts, there has been a notable shift in activity momentum during the quarter, evidenced by rising global purchasing managers indexes . This improvement, alongside the lowered earnings hurdle due to reduced forecasts “is suggesting that we will get earnings beats,” strategists at JPMorgan said in a Monday note.

“The risks of interest rates spiking for the “wrong reasons”, Fed pivot getting fully reversed and inflation staying too hot are all elevated,” they added.

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