Is the US job market beginning to weaken? Friday's employment report may provide hints

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Inflation Nouvelles

Economy,Government Regulations,Jobs And Careers

Tentative signs have begun to emerge that the U.S. economy is cooling in a way that would be welcomed by the Federal Reserve’s inflation fighters: Companies are posting fewer available jobs, consumer spending has slipped and wage growth, while still healthy, is gradually slowing.

FILE - United States Postal Service letter carrier Gabriel Peña carries mail in Los Angeles on March 22, 2024. On Friday, June 7, 2024, the U.S. government issues its May jobs report. FILE - A worker at Reata Engineering and Machine Works programs a Mazak Variaxis machine used to make semiconductor pieces on Feb. 15, 2024, in Englewood, Colo. On Friday, June 7, 2024, the U.S. government issues its May jobs report.

“It’s going to be interesting to understand if the economy is running out of gas or coasting into summer solid hiring,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at the payroll processor ADP.China’s exports grow 7.6% in May, beating expectations despite trade tensionsIf May’s hiring data comes in close to economists’ forecasts, it would fall well below the average monthly gain of 269,000 in the first three months of 2024.

“That sort of mom-and-pop, Main Street small business — we’re hearing still pretty positive things,” Fiorille said. When the Fed began aggressively raising rates, most economists expected the resulting jump in borrowing costs to cause a recession and drive unemployment to painfully high levels. Yet the job market has proved more durable than almost anyone had predicted. Even so, Americans remain generally frustrated by high prices, a continuing source of discontent that could imperil President Joe Biden’s re-election bid.

 

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