On May 21, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at a record high and is currently up 5 per cent for the year.
In recent weeks, the positive price momentum has stalled. Over the past month, the S&P/TSX Composite Index is relatively unchanged, down 1.3 per cent. There has also been a notable rotation to defensive stocks. The top performing sectors in the S&P/TSX Composite Index are consumer staples, communication services, and utilities with one-month price returns of 6.1 per cent, 1.7 per cent, and 1.2 per cent, respectively.
Looking at individual stocks in the TSX Index, average target prices for approximately 61 per cent of stocks have moved higher over the past month. Amongst the stocks with the largest increases to their average target prices are HudBay Minerals Inc. . These securities have all seen their average target prices rise by more than 10 per cent in the past four weeks.
It’s important to note that high target prices, which imply stellar returns that seem unbelievable may be just that - unrealistic. At times, when a stock price falls analysts may maintain their bullish expectations, inflating the forecast return. In addition, an outlier can skew the average target price, to the upside or downside, particularly when the number of analysts covering a stock is low.
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