This year's presidential election is already sending health-care stocks on a wild ride. Historically, shifts in political control have created "increased volatility" across the sector, sending investors "to look for areas of safety," Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins said in a July 7 note. "This election is likely to produce distinct, binary, opposing health policy outcomes depending on who wins.
There has been a turnaround in investor enthusiasm due to a strong second quarter that reignited confidence in the company's outlook. Jefferies analyst David Windley praised the company's efforts to pinch costs, saying it could lead to a "superior '25 setup" for the stock. Windley sees a Trump win resulting in membership growth, and UnitedHealth appears "best positioned to capture the full economic opportunity.