Fear fades in U.S. stocks, but history shows quick return to calm unlikely

in U.S. stocks, but if history is any guide, markets might remain jittery for months.

Even so, turbulent episodes in which the VIX shot higher show markets tend to stay frothy for months after a blowup, arguing against the kind of risk-taking that lifted asset prices in the first part of the year. Indeed, a Reuters analysis showed the VIX has taken an average of 170 sessions to return to its long-term median of 17.6 once it has closed above 35, a level associated with high investor anxiety.

More serious ructions followed in late July and early August. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points, squeezing players in a carry trade fueled by traders borrowing cheaply in Japanese yen to buy higher-yielding assets from U.S. tech stocks to bitcoin. “What we saw on Monday was really isolated to the equity market and the FX market. We did not see a correspondingly big increase in volatility in the other asset classes, like rate volatility and credit volatility,” she said.

Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, is watching whether the VIX can remain below its long-term average of 19.5 to determine whether calm is truly returning to markets.

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