. In 2008, it was at $1.9 trillion. At the end of 2021, FDIC-regulated banks held $1.1 trillion in CRE loans.
But things are shifting. As noted above, the third quarter numbers won’t be released for another couple of weeks, but second quarter-end numbers started painting a picture that most real estate developers, specifically in certain sectors, would rather not see. A Janney Montgomery Scott research note published recently stated about 9 percent of banks exceed one or both regulatory CRE guidelines, modestly above pre-pandemic levels when it was 6 percent, though well below pre-Great Recession levels of 18 percent. While Janney researchers will not estimate the percentage at the end of the third quarter, some believe 12 percent of the banks could have broken the threshold by the third quarter.
Office, hotel and retail sectors likely will face the most severe headwinds in the next couple of quarters,– especially if real estate developers can show they have most of the new building leased out.
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