Global 2023 economic view downgraded, at odds with market optimism: Reuters poll

BENGALURU : Global economic growth is forecast to barely clear 2 per cent this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the greater risk was a further downgrade to their view, at odds with widespread optimism in markets since the start of the year.

But economists as a whole were much less upbeat, paring back growth forecasts for this year and next from 2.3 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively, in an October 2022 poll to 2.1 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively. Their more dour mood flew in the face of some notable upgrades by banks in recent weeks.

Much will depend on how much success the world's major central banks can claim from roughly a year's worth of historically aggressive interest rate hikes that are not over yet. The full impact of rate hikes can take a year or more to show up in economies. Inflation predictions for this year in nearly 80 per cent of economies surveyed, 35 of 45, were upgraded from the October poll, suggesting the bias was for global central banks to maintain a tighter monetary policy for an extended period of time.That suggests central banks have no room to even consider lowering rates any time soon.

While the ECB was expected to deliver larger 50-basis-point hikes, the Fed was forecast to go for smaller 25-basis-point rate rises.

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